Expected Market Moves For The Big Stocks – 7/22

July 22, 2018 0 Comments

The expected move that a stock makes is very important to know. The easiest way to get an idea of the move is to price a straddle at the close of trading on Friday. That is buying one call and one put at an ATM strike. That is not a 100% accurate calculation, but it is good enough for most traders. Most platforms will tell you the expected move. There are many ways that traders can use the expected move in their trading trading.

Take a look at TSLA last week.

TSLA had what appeared to be great news. If I am not mistaken Model 3 production hit targets. Retail bought like crazy. The stock moved to the green line, the high end of the expected move, then just fell from there. Had you taken it short at the high end of the expected move you would have banked heavy on options.

Let’s look at the $SPX. Just consider it a 2700+ stock for the moment.

The $SPX closed almost to the penny at the top of the expected market maker move.

Once again, there are many ways that you can use the expected move of a stock in your trading. We have various strategies.

Here are some expected moves for this week that I am watching:

$SPX: CLOSE: 2801.32 LOW: 2770.03 HIGH: 2833.73
$SPY: CLOSE: 279.68 LOW: 276.46 HIGH: 282.90
$IWM: CLOSE: 168.48 LOW: 166.09 HIGH: 170.87
$QQQ: CLOSE: 178.99 LOW: 175.79 HIGH: 182.19
$VXX: CLOSE: 31.33 LOW: 28.67 HIGH: 33.99
$GOOGL: CLOSE: 1197.88 LOW: 1143.34  HIGH: 1252.42 NOTE: Through ER expected move is 46.61
$BIDU: CLOSE: 259.98 LOW: 251.32 HIGH: 268.64 NOTE: Watch this one through $GOOGL ER as options are cheap.
$TSLA: CLOSE: 313.58 LOW: 299.18 HIGH: 329.98
$AAPL: CLOSE: 191.41 LOW: 187.75 HIGH: 195.13
$FB: CLOSE: 209.94 LOW: 198.52 HIGH: 220.07 NOTE: We will do an ER trade.
$BABA: CLOSE: 187.25 LOW: 181.80 HIGH: 192.70

Volatility is low and I feel that some of these will exceed the expected market maker moves. We will be a buyer of premium.

If you choose to use these levels then the best way is to draw them on your charts (time consuming).

MEMBERS: I have added a think or swim indicator in both private feeds that calculates these for you and draws the lines on your charts. Yet another indicator than many are charging $200 for. Crazy stuff.

Here is what it looks like:


I have also added and ER calculator for Think Or Swim as well. once again some charge $300+ for this. It’s yours free in the private twitter feeds.

Here is what it looks like:

let’s rock this big week with lots of earnings!




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